After 20 years as a full-time professional REALTOR® and being a serious student of market trends, I’ve learned a few things. One of them is the ‘January FOMO Phenomenon.’
One thing that never changes (in my local Calgary market, at least) is that December and January are ALWAYS the slowest two months of the year for sales. Sales are usually marginally higher in January, but not always! The numbers between the two months have been remarkably close over the past several years.
This contradicts what most people think (including practically every other agent I know). After all, it’s easily explainable why sales are slow in December. It’s the dead of winter, and who has time for house shopping in the weeks leading up to Christmas?
But why are sales so slow in January?
Most people considering buying a new home wait until the New Year to start their search. This makes sense. New year. New beginning. New home!
And, indeed, there is always way more showing activity in January than in December. It’s not even close. I typically have three to five times more showings in January!
But here’s the punch line:
More showings does NOT equal more sales.
This can be super frustrating for sellers. They’re getting way more activity, but still, no offers! Why?
Here’s the simple explanation: Most buyers looking in January are getting an early start on their search, and they don’t feel any sense of urgency. Even if they come across a listing they love, they often think, “This one is great! But there are lots of new listings coming on, so let’s wait and see what else pops up over the next month or two.”
They fear missing out on a future listing that could be better than the one they already like. That’s FOMO.
Then, as time passes, sure enough, there are more listings but ALSO way more competing buyers.
Suddenly, we’re in the middle of the spring market! It’s remarkable how quickly we transition from the ‘winter doldrums’ to the ‘spring frenzy,’ which often catches buyers off guard.
In most cases (not always), if a buyer has flexibility, they should start their search sooner (yes, in January) rather than later (when the market becomes significantly more competitive).
Of course, you still want to ensure you’re buying something good for a fair price! But the more time you put into ‘doing your homework’ (viewing properties), the more comfortable you’ll be in making a decision, even if the market conditions start getting hotter.
What about sellers? In most cases (but not always), listing your home in January is not much different from listing it in December (it sucks). As I stated, even if you find a very interested buyer, FOMO may prevent them from writing an offer.
Ideally, if sellers have flexibility, they should list closer to the beginning of the spring market when there is the most buyer activity.
By the way, ‘Early Spring’ is always a better time to list than ‘Late Spring’ (even if you think that’s when your house shows its best), but I’ll leave that topic for a future Rant. For now, suffice to say I’d rather my house showed 95% with 3X the buyers, compared to 100% with only 1/3 as many buyers (the fussiest ones to boot).
All the best in 2025!
Ted
P.S. I wrote this at the beginning of January, and today (Jan 20), it’s clear that we’re in for another banner spring market, barring any outside interference, such as American tariffs. What about your market? Let me know in the comments!
